Work out why a metric actually moved
Separate real change from seasonality, mix shift, and measurement artefacts.
What this prompt helps you do
Ranked explanations with the evidence for each and the check that would confirm or eliminate it.
When to use it
A number moved and the first explanation offered is already being repeated as fact.
What to prepare
The goal, relevant source material, constraints, examples, and the decision or action this should support.
How to get a strong result
Rule out mix shift and instrumentation change before accepting a behavioural explanation; they are far more common.
How to use this prompt
Replace each placeholder with accurate context. Paste the complete prompt into Claude, review the response critically, resolve important questions, and use it as a considered input to the next decision—not as an unchecked final answer.